Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped to a fresh two-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for air conditioning demand to decline next week as temperatures moderate with the coming of autumn.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.4 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.503 per million British thermal units, their lowest since Sept. 6.
That was the sixth session in a row that the front-month declined, its longest such streak since April 2019.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures over the next two weeks would be colder than normal over the western third of the country and warmer in the eastern third.
Traders noted warmer-than-normal weather in late September and early October tends to reduce heating demand without lifting the need for air conditioning.
Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would average 83.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week and next as cooling demand is replaced by a bit of heating demand.
Those demand forecasts include exports, which analyst said would likely rise as more gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and pipelines to Mexico.
Gas flows to the LNG plants rose to 6.2 bcfd on Monday from a low of 5.7 bcfd last week following shutdown of Dominion Energy Inc's D.N Cove Point in Maryland for planned maintenance, according to Refinitiv data. projected flows to LNG terminals could rise to 6.5 bcfd by the end of next week.
Exports to Mexico slipped to 4.9 bcfd on Monday as flows on some pipes decreased from a record high 5.6 bcfd last week as gas started moving through the 2.6-bcfd Valley Crossing pipeline from Texas. said exports to Mexico should return to record levels in coming weeks as Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Inc's KMI.N Permian Express pipe in Texas enters service.
Analysts said utilities likely added 86 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 20, up from an injection of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 74 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.189 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.9% below the five-year average of 3.252 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that average in March 2019. But with production near a record high, analysts said, stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of the summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the lower 48 states edged up to 92.5 bcfd on Monday from an average of 92.0 bcfd last week, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.0 bcfd on Aug. 19.
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
ended
Sep 20
average
20(Forecas Sep 13
Sep 20
(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
73 U.S. GFS CDDs
70 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.2 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.7 U.S. LNG Imports
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.8 U.S. LNG Exports
1.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8 U.S. Residential
3.8 U.S. Power Plant
29.9 U.S. Industrial
20.2 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.4 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
20.75
23.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
28.56
36.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
95.67
37.30
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
43.50
24.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
45.75
23.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
53.75
33.25