Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday on expectations for lower demand by the end of this month, while investors awaited the weekly storage report, in anticipation of a big storage injection.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 0.6 cents, or 0.3%, at $2.282 per million British thermal units as of 10:34 a.m. EDT (1434 GMT).
"What is pressuring (prices) is the lack of real demand outside of next week or so. We are seeing that in the end of October, demand will start to moderate a bit," before heating demand picks up in November, said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
"We are sitting between a very good support and couple pennies up. We are getting some of the moving-average lines which are going to act as resistance so we expect prices to hold in this current pattern, probably through the storage report on Thursday," DiDona said.
Acting as the nearest resistance level to the front-month futures is the 55-day moving-average at about $2.317, followed by the 100-day moving average at about $2.348.
Analysts said utilities likely added 96 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 4. Some analysts expect injections of 100 bcf and above.
That compares with a five-year (2014-18) average build of 89 bcf for the period.
If correct, that increase would boost stockpiles to 3.412 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 0.4% below the five-year average of 3.424 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that in March 2019. But with production close to a record high, analysts said stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the lower 48 states edged down to 92.7 bcfd on Tuesday from 92.9 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 93.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 93.8 bcfd on Sept. 29.
Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would reach 83.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week and 86.1 bcfd next week.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Oct 4
average
4(Forecast 27(Actual)
Oct 4
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
127 U.S. GFS CDDs
40 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.5 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.6 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.2
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.2 U.S. Commercial
6.6 U.S. Residential
6.8 U.S. Power Plant
25.2 U.S. Industrial
20.5 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.7 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
25.75
23.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
26.75
25.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
21.25
21.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
50.63
26.94
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
24.50
42.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
16.00
42.50