Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Monday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, allowing utilities to put more fuel in storage for the winter.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were down 4.2 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.310 per million British thermal units at 10:26 a.m. EDT (1426 GMT).
After futures fell for a record 12 sessions in a row last week, gas speculators cut their long positions on the NYMEX 3023651MLNG to their lowest since May 2011, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data from Refinitiv. the spot market, power and gas prices for Monday fell to their lowest in years in several hubs, including gas in Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL at its lowest since November 2001, power in New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL at its lowest since June 2015, gas in New York NG-CG-NY-SNL at its lowest since September 2016 and gas at Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania at its lowest since November 2017.
Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would only reach 82.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week and 84.5 bcfd next week, which is down from its forecasts on Friday of 82.8 bcfd for this week and 84.6 bcfd for next week.
Traders noted demand is expected to rise next week - though not as much as previously thought - as heating and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rise faster than power generator cooling demand declines.
Gas flows to LNG export plants held at 6.1 bcfd on Sunday the same as last week's average, according to Refinitiv data.
Next week, however, Refinitiv projected LNG exports would rise close to record highs of around 6.7 bcfd when Dominion Energy Inc's D.N Cove Point plant in Maryland returns to service. said utilities likely added 88 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 4. That compares with an injection of 91 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 89 bcf for the period.
If correct, that increase would boost stockpiles to 3.405 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 0.6% below the five-year average of 3.424 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that in March 2019. But with production near a record high, analysts said stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the lower 48 states eased to 92.4 bcfd on Monday due mostly to small declines in the Appalachian region, down from an average of 93.1 bcfd last week, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.8 bcfd on Sept. 29.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Oct 4
average
4(Forecast 27(Actual)
Oct 4
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
120 U.S. GFS CDDs
43 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.5 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.6 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.2
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.2 U.S. Commercial
6.6 U.S. Residential
6.8 U.S. Power Plant
25.2 U.S. Industrial
20.5 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.7 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
16.50
21.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
21.50
32.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
80.00
42.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
37.75
31.25
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
40.25
25.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
41.25
27.50