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GLOBAL MARKETS-Soothing Fed lifts stocks, Wall St eyes record highs

Published 2016-09-22, 07:59 a/m
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Soothing Fed lifts stocks, Wall St eyes record highs
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* European, Asian shares jump, Wall St eyeing record highs

* Fed flags possibility of Dec hike but outlook more dovish

* Dollar falls, yen up in wake of BOJ policy shift

* Turkey, Indonesia cut rates, world total since 2015 almost 200

* New Zealand leaves rates steady, further easing likely

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Wall Street had record highs back in its sights on Thursday as world shares and bonds rallied after the Federal Reserve signalled an increasingly cautious approach to future U.S. rate increases.

European markets followed Asia's lead, with Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE climbing 1.3 percent and Germany's DAX .GDAXI and France's CAC 40 .FCHI both jumping almost 2 percent ahead of what was expected to be a third day of gains in New York. .N .

Oil and commodities firms .SXPP gained the most as oil LCOc1 and metal prices rose, while a weakened dollar .DXY made the climbing easy for the euro EUR= , pound GBP= and Swiss franc CHF= . /FRX

The yen also hit a four-week high of 100.10 against the greenback JPY= and the overnight drop in U.S. government bond yields US10YT=RR US/ saw German Bund yields DE10YT=TWEB move decisively back into negative territory. EUR/GVD

"The looser for longer message from the Fed and the lowering of the median point of rate rise projections is seen as a plus for risk assets, as can been seen in global equities," said fund manager GAM's head of multi-asset portfolios, Larry Hatheway.

The Fed did signal it could hike rates by year-end as the labour market improved further, but cut the number of rate increases expected in 2017 and 2018. It also reduced its longer-run interest rate forecast to 2.9 percent from 3 percent. left investors feeling that any tightening would be glacial at best. Market pricing for a December move rose only a fraction to 59.3 percent 0#FF: from 59.2 percent, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool.

Westpac analyst Richard Franulovich noted that back in June the median 'dot plot' - the rate moves expected by the Fed's members - showed five hikes to end-2017. Now it is down to just three.

"We do not feel that the dollar has the wherewithal to make a more concerted run higher in the next few weeks," he added. "The FOMC is unlikely to deliver anything more than a very 'dovish' December hike."

Before that also comes the uncertainty of U.S. elections, added GAM's Hatheway.

Another central bank struggling with too-low inflation is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which held rates steady on Thursday but renewed a pledge to cut again even as much of the domestic economy grows briskly. RBNZ's blunt statement that further easing would be needed knocked the local dollar down 0.2 percent to $0.7334 NZD= , but the market has found it hard to sell a currency that still offers an overnight interest rate of 2 percent.

OIL ON THE BOIL

The Australian dollar AUD= edged up to an almost two-week high of $0.7641 after new Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said interest rate cuts and a weaker currency were helping the economy, but that it was "not particularly useful" to keep cutting rates in the hope that this would eventually lift growth. and Turkey took a different view as both cut their rates, the latter for the seventh month running. There have now been almost 200 cuts worldwide since the start of last year. (graphic http://reut.rs/24kleab)

In commodity markets, gold traded down 0.3 percent at $1,332.63 an ounce XAU= , having climbed 1.7 percent as the U.S. dollar declined on Wednesday.

Oil prices showed no sign of fading though, having added as much as 3 percent on Wednesday after a third surprise weekly drop in U.S. crude stockpiles boosted the demand outlook in the world's largest oil consumer.

Another supportive factor was an oil workers' strike in Norway, which threatened to cut North Sea crude output.

U.S. crude (WTI) futures CLc1 advanced 1 percent to $45.83 after soaring 2.9 percent on Wednesday. Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 0.8 percent to $47.21, adding to gains of 2 percent on Wednesday.

Industrial metals MET/L CMCU3 surged too, along with emerging market assets, on the hope that low global interest rates will boost both growth and demand for resources. Over half of the main emerging economies are commodity producers. EMRG/FRX

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS closed up 1.1 percent in its sixth straight session of increases, just 0.9 percent shy of its one-year high touched earlier this month.

"The market got what it expected/wanted: Another dose of central bank support for markets following the Bank of Japan meeting," said Daniel Morris, senior investment strategist at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) Investment Partners in London.

The U.S. session will see weekly jobless claims and monthly house price figures published, with euro zone consumer confidence data set to show how shopper confidence there is holding up due at 1400 GMT. ECONG7

For Reuters new Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Global assets in 2016

http://reut.rs/1WAiOSC Currencies in 2016

http://link.reuters.com/tak27s Global interest rate cutting frenzy

http://reut.rs/24kleab

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

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