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GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks shrivel as trade truce doubts, economic woes gather

Published 2018-12-04, 05:12 a/m
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks shrivel as trade truce doubts, economic woes gather
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* MSCI all world index ease 0.1 percent

* European share markets continue selloff

* Confusion over timing of trade truce, China's commitments

* U.S. yield curve inversion raises recession concerns

* Dollar weakens, sterling bounces

By Karin Strohecker

London, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Deflating hopes of a swift resolution to the Sino-U.S. trade war knocked world stocks off three-week highs on Tuesday, while growing fears the U.S economy could be headed for recession sooner than expected weighed on the dollar.

The rapprochement between U.S. President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping at the weekend G20 meeting had fired up markets on Monday. But the upbeat mood quickly dissipated on scepticism that Washington and Beijing can resolve deep-seated differences on trade in the agreed three-month negotiating window.

Adding to market woes, was an inversion of the short end of the U.S. yield curve which raised the spectre of a possible U.S. recession. declines on Asian bourses, where Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 closed 2.4 percent lower, the mood was sombre in Europe with the wider blue chip index .STOXX slipping 0.3 percent. Frankfurt's DAX .GDAXI and Paris' CAC 40 .FCHI fell 0.6 percent while MSCI's index of world stocks .MIWD00000PUS declined 0.1 percent. initial relief rally was never going to last. Investors need more detail now in order for that risk on sentiment to survive," said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. "So far that detail has not been coming through and investors have more questions than answers."

There was confusion over when the 90-day period, during which the U.S. and China would hold off on imposing more tariffs, would start. A White House official said it started on Dec. 1, while earlier, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters it would start on Jan. 1. none of the commitments that U.S. officials said had been given by China - including reducing its 40 percent tariffs on autos - were agreed to in writing and specifics had yet to be hammered out. the U.S. yield curve focussed investors' minds. The curve between U.S. three-year and five-year and between two-year and five-year paper inverted on Monday - the first parts of the Treasury yield curve to invert since the financial crisis, excluding very short-dated debt.

Analysts expect the two-year, 10-year yield curve - seen as a predictor of a U.S. recession - to follow suit. Tuesday, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR was at 2.95 percent compared with its U.S. Monday close of 2.99 percent. And the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields US2US10=RR tightened to around 13 basis points - hitting its narrowest level since July 2007. focus is now shifting to the inverted U.S. bond yield curve which has negative connotations, while implying the U.S. economy is heading towards what was only a few weeks ago an improbable economic slowdown," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for APAC at Oanda.

"Now, even recessionary fear is starting to raise its ugly head."

However, analysts said U.S. manufacturing data released on Monday pointed to a stronger economic outlook, with new orders a "key driver" in boosting activity. oil prices extended gains, adding to Monday's 4 percent surge as investors bet a key OPEC meeting on Thursday could deliver supply cuts. crude CLc1 and Brent crude LCOc1 added 1.6 percent to $53.82 and $62.7 per barrel respectively. O/R

SOFTER DOLLAR

The dollar weakened against major currencies, weighed down by falling U.S. bond yields.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of peers, softened 0.5 percent to 96.53 .DXY , while the euro added 0.6 percent to $1.1416 EUR= .

The dollar also weakened 0.8 percent against the Japanese yen JPY= and fell more than 0.5 percent to its weakest level since September against the offshore Chinese yuan CNH= to 6.83 yuan.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was scheduled to testify on Wednesday to a congressional Joint Economic Committee, but the hearing was postponed because of a national day of mourning for U.S. President George H.W. Bush, who died on Friday.

The dollar came under pressure last week on Powell's comments that rates were nearing neutral levels, which markets widely interpreted as signalling a slowdown in the Fed's rate-hike cycle.

Meanwhile sterling was back on the Brexit rollercoaster, rallying sharply after the EU's top legal adviser said Britain had the right to withdraw its Brexit notice. was a bounce back from two-month lows it hit in early trade against the dollar on concern about British parliamentary approval for a proposed Brexit deal.

The pound GBP=D3 last stood 0.7 percent firmer at $1.2814 while weakening 0.2 percent against the euro EURGBP=D3 to 89.10 pence.

Spot gold XAU= jumped on the weaker dollar, trading up 0.5 percent at $1,237.24 per ounce. GOL/

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